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Brexit Worries Won’t Fade

11 Years ago | December 14, 2018 5/25/22, 12:00 AM

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


U.K. political Situation In DisarrayAs of a week ago, the U.K. Parliament was scheduled to vote on Tuesday December 11 on whether to proceed with the Brexit deal negotiated with the EU with PM May. Her deal apparently had no chance of passage in the Parliament as her ruling coalition does not have the necessary votes to push her program through. On Monday December 10, PM, PM May cancelled the December 11 vote because she knew that the plan would fail. By so doing, she avoided an embarrassing defeat and bought herself more time to improve the terms of the deal. A major sticking point is the status of Northern Ireland vis-à-vis the Republic of Ireland. At present, the two entities have free exit and entry between the two. This pertains to individuals and products. The Republic of Ireland, thanks to its EU membership also has free exit and entry with all EU nations. This would end for Northern Ireland if the U.K. pulls out of the EU and would result in a “hard Border” between the two. This open border had been a key component in the treaty between the Irelands that had settled the long conflict between the two. No one wants to upset what has been a successful arrangement for decades. The EU has been insisting that one cost of Brexit must be that Northern Ireland remain in the EU. This is an unacceptable demand for Brexiteers. Now talks are at an impasse.


So what next? PM May has returned to talk to the EU bureaucracy and some key European Leaders to see if the deal can be salvaged. Personally I do not think so, but we will see. Perhaps the EU leadership will have to see the May government fall to demonstrate that what they are asking for from the U.K. is not feasible.

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
Mon 17 Dec 2018
No Major Data

Tue 18 Dec 2018
A 09:00 DE- IFO Survey
A 13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
Wed 19 Dec 2018
AA 09:30 GB- CPI
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
A 16:00 US- EIA Crude
AA 19:30 US- Fed Bank Decision
Thu 20 Dec 2018
01:30 AU- Employment
AA 03:00 JA- BOJ Decision
AA 09:30 GB- Retail Sales
AA 12:00 GB- BOE Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 21 Dec 2018
AA 09:30 GB- GDP
AA 13:30 CA- Retail Sales
A 13:30 US- Durable Goods
AA 13:30 US- GDP/PCE Deflator
A 15:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

 

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